Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Wild Imaginings?

Could Donald Trump really become the USA's next president - other than in our feverish nightmares or scary daytime imaginings? Rational analysis says not.

Hillary Clinton Has Edge Over Donald Trump In General Election
This is a piece to watch, ratings will be updated
Hillary Clinton would have a significant electoral advantage over Donald Trump in the general election, based on an NPR analysis.

The Democratic former secretary of state would start out with already exactly enough electoral votes to win the presidency, 270-191, based on states considered safe, likely and to lean toward either candidate. The ratings, which will be updated at least monthly until Election Day, are based on fundamentals — historical trends and demographics, plus reporting and polling (both public and private).

But there is also the potential that this fall's presidential battlegrounds could be re-sorted — pitting white, working-class voters, whom Trump is appealing to, against Latino voters, who appear to be in Clinton's corner. Traditional ways of thinking about the map should and will be challenged. So in addition to our current ratings, we also explore several possibilities and scenarios, including Trump's potential path and even two potential ties, based on Trump doing well in the Upper Midwest and Clinton racking up wins in competitive states where the Latino vote is important.............

However, it's always wise to consider any situation from a different angle. As mentioned before in comments here, this election isn't like yer average general election in the USA. Third parties, this time around, are drawing more interest, due to much disaffection for, and frustration with, Democratic and Republican nominees Clinton and Trump, both have "baggage" which, unless blinded by glass ceilings or white supremacy leanings have to be glaringly apparent.

Why a Trump win in November, against all odds, isn't out of the question:

Donald Trump Is Going To Be Elected by Michael Rosenblum

Donald Trump is going to be elected president.
The American people voted for him a long time ago.
They voted for him when The History Channel went from showing documentaries about the Second World War to “Pawn Stars” and “Swamp People.”
They voted for him when The Discovery Channel went from showing “Lost Treasures of the Yangtze Valley” to “Naked and Afraid.”
They voted for him when The Learning Channel moved from something you could learn from to “My 600-lb Life.”
They voted for him when CBS went from airing “Harvest of Shame” to airing “Big Brother”..........

Mike Michaud's comment on the above piece:
This is exactly the sort of smug, dismissive, snotty, condescending elitist horsecrap that is ACTUALLY getting Trump wherever it is that he is getting.

Keep on sneering at all those icky troglodytes that are so far beneath you, you nasty 'broad-minded' and 'tolerant' and 'enlightened' jerks.

Keep right on hysterically denouncing and deriding and dehumanizing anyone who has the audacity to disagree with you and your disgusting hypocrisy and corruption, or, more offensively still, refuses to let you train them to be yet another one of your never-ending litany of oppressed victim-dependent voter blocks that 'need' you in power to 'rescue' them so you can earn your martyr sainthood merit badge. What on Earth would you have to humble-brag to your snob ivory tower friends about then?

Keep right on sneering... That is of course, while you aren't busy crowing and strutting about all the listening and understanding and perspective-respecting that you do.

I can, quite easily, appreciate both points of view. While a certain "dumbing down" evident in some TV fodder is undeniable, so is the glee with which those who consider themselves to be better educated, of more "refined" taste and higher intellect, love to criticise and scoff at those who enjoy lighter TV fare. But comment about TV fare is just one instance of the smugness, snobbery, and general atmosphere of hoity-toit that's certain to offend and inflame people. I've been secretly offended myself, in times past, when mentioning that I enjoyed programmes such as American Idol or The Voice. I can, kind of, relate to the feelings of those who enjoy some shows mentioned in the first piece above, when they read and hear critics of their taste. It doesn't stop there, there's a general feeling that one's lifestyle, one's choices, one's "non-college education", just about everything one does is constantly sneered at by those who consider themselves to be above and beyond.

This is one facet of the unremitting class war, 21st century style in the USA. It's not entirely political. There's more than a whiff of the adult version of bullying about it. When someone like Donald Trump appears in the adult playground, someone shrewd enough to understand what has been going on for generations, someone smart enough to use it to fuel their own dastardly plans, an opportunity for political backlash has arrived and wild imaginings ensue.


mike said...

I don't mind being called snobbish, condescending, smug, etc, because of my view of a very dumbed-down and self-centered electorate. The American voters should be demanding to hear the candidates' viewpoints on true issues, not the side-tracking, inane disputes and accusations tossed between the two leading potentials, but diversion works wonders to alleviate attention toward real issues. Most voters have no idea what the true issues are, particularly concerning the non-partisan best-interests of America.

Months ago, I mentioned one of my Trump-voting neighbors maintained that police shooting victim, Freddie Gray, was guilty and a criminal. This was after Gray was completely exonerated of any wrong-doing. How did she come to that conclusion? Facebook! I told her that Gray had been vindicated and her response was to accuse me of believing everything I saw and heard on the news! Facebook was her source of valid information.

It has been conveniently reduced to voting for crooked Hillary or fascist Donald...emails vs the wall...or wasting one's vote for the 3rd party candidates. A dichotomy that both Hillary and The Donald are polling closely, yet both are polling as the most unfavorable candidates ever.

Have you followed football's Kaepernick saga...his refusal to stand for the national anthem? Some interesting trivia regarding Francis Scott Keys' "The Star Spangled Banner":

"Colin Kaepernick Is Righter Than You Know: The National Anthem Is a Celebration of Slavery

Almost no one seems to be aware that even if the U.S. were a perfect country today, it would be bizarre to expect African-American players to stand for 'The Star-Spangled Banner.' Why? Because it literally celebrates the murder of African-Americans. Few people know this because we only ever sing the first verse. But read the end of the third verse and you’ll see why 'The Star-Spangled Banner' is not just a musical atrocity, it’s an intellectual and moral one, too..."

Twilight said...

mike ~ LOL! I'm imagining your nose elevating slightly as your fingers hit the keyboard! I honestly can see both sides of this though. There's no answer to it, never was, never will be. Like death and rent day the class war is with us always.

Airs of superiority, snobbishness etc breed retaliation, in the form of support for someone who seems to be an ally to those feeling snubbed, derided; just as drone and conventional weapon attacks will breed retaliation, in the form of terrorism.

No, I haven't read anything about Kaepernick - when I see the word football I head in the other direction! After reading about it just now, I have every sympathy with Kaepernick. I dislike national anthems in general - the US one is especially unpleasant and belongs to another era. Britain's isn't much better - though most of the original lyrics are never sung. Last verse:
Lord grant that Marshal Wade
May by thy mighty aid
Victory bring
May he sedition hush
And like a torrent rush
Rebellious Scots to crush
God save the King


Twilight said...

mike ~ Kind of, sort of related to the national anthem thing. Last evening we watched a junk store DVD of "Peggy Sue Got Married" - we'd both seen it before bu not for many years. During a scene after Peggy has time travelled back to high school days, the class, first thing in the morning sings a patriotic song - I think it was "My country 'tis of thee....etc" (not the national anthem) followed by the Pledge of Allegiance.

I asked anyjazz "Did you do that?" He responded that he and his school did, as did all schools back then - but no longer. "That's good", said I. "No, it felt good!" said he. Hmmm.

I answered that our high school had a daily assembly for the whole school in our Great Hall, with the singing of a hymn, short bible reading and a few words from the Headmistress. All were obliged to attend before classes began, except Roman Catholic girls who could stay in an empty classroom, because their church did not agree to their taking part in anything Church of England related. These assemblies will no longer be part of school life in England, I feel certain. Didn't do us any harm, but probably didn't do us much good either.

Anonymous said...

Nate Silver has correctly called the last two elections and he has HRC out in front too -


Now I am hesitant to disagree with your characterization that 'There's more than a whiff of the adult version of bullying about it' as it appears you have chosen to conclude that anyone who disagrees with you has an elevated nose.

Be that as it may, I respect the right of each and every one to their opinion; it does not follow that I must therefore respect their opinion. Freedom of thought and speech has become subject to a PC collective game of whack-a-mole.

Humanitarian idealism does not change the fact that many of Mr Trump's supporters demonstrate an extreme level of ignorance of their own history, geography and politics.

None has better limned the dangers inherent in this than Mr Chas Dickens in his 'A Christmas Carol':

' They were a boy and a girl. Yellow, meagre, ragged, scowling, wolfish; but prostrate, too, in their humility. Where graceful youth should have filled their features out, and touched them with its freshest tints, a stale and shrivelled hand, like that of age, had pinched, and twisted them, and pulled them into shreds. Where angels might have sat enthroned, devils lurked, and glared out menacing. No change, no degradation, no perversion of humanity, in any grade, through all the mysteries of wonderful creation, has monsters half so horrible and dread.

Scrooge started back, appalled. Having them shown to him in this way, he tried to say they were fine children, but the words choked themselves, rather than be parties to a lie of such enormous magnitude.

"Spirit, are they yours?" Scrooge could say no more.

"They are Man's," said the Spirit, looking down upon them. "And they cling to me, appealing from their fathers. This boy is Ignorance. This girl is Want. Beware them both, and all of their degree, but most of all beware this boy, for on his brow I see that written which is Doom, unless the writing be erased. Deny it!" cried the Spirit, stretching out its hand towards the city. "Slander those who tell it ye. Admit it for your factious purposes, and make it worse. And abide the end."'

mike - Re Facebook 'news' and touching on yesterday's topic, did you see this*? (*Trigger warning lol)


mike (again) said...

No, my head isn't elevated with upward nose...LOL. Instead I maintain a rather scornful, beady-eyed, curmudgeonish stance. We all have trivial pursuits that entertain us and I'm certainly no exception. I chastise the individuals that know nothing beyond those pursuits, those that know every facet of the recent VMA awards, the latest celebrity gossip and doings, all of the conspiracy theories, up-to-date fashion trends with the accompanying shopping, everything there is to absorb in the latest sports, yet have no inkling about civics. I've seen interviews where those polled knew nothing about true, current events and the people behind those events, but they excelled at identifying faces and facts of the extraneous world. It's rather shameful in my opinion.

I don't believe that socio-economic levels should interfere with knowledgeable, diligent voting, either. Those in the lower ranks have more to gain by voting, if for no other reason than numbers. We have a tremendous number of disenfranchised, registered voters that don't vote in this country. The Republican takeover of Congress had its roots in low, voter turnout. It can be argued that elections are muddied by laws and parties, but we voters show-up in even lower numbers for midterm, local and state elections that significantly affect our local and congressional law makers.

I'll step-off my soap box now.

Twilight said...

Sabina ~ Now I am hesitant to disagree with your characterization that 'There's more than a whiff of the adult version of bullying about it' as it appears you have chosen to conclude that anyone who disagrees with you has an elevated nose.

As I stated in the post and in a comment to mike that I can honestly see both sises of this - and whether you wish to admit it or not, there are two sides.

It's good to have both sides represented.

I'm an outlier here today, it seems. So be it. :-)

Twilight said...

mike ~ I understand your points of view, I do. I shall leave it at that.

mike (again) said...

Sabina - Yes, I saw the article earlier. Facebook had enough problems with their human oversight of the "news" before it went to robot-only, but perhaps should now hire the hominids back. Must have been on HuffPo...one of the humans fired when the 'bot replaced her, stated that her hours of work were brutal: long hours, with no vacation, sick, or overtime pay.

Facebook has been receiving more criticism than normal the past several months. Wiki states their website went online February 4, 2004, and I would assume it occurred during the normal working-hours, 8 to 5. Here's the noon chart [CST, adjusted to 10 AM for Menlo Park, CA]:

The Moon in Cancer isn't too far off (plus, minus about 2* if between 8AM and 5 PM)...note that it's opposing natal Mercury-Chiron. The personal-homey-emotional feel of Facebook opposed by the Capricorn-structured business model of that communication combined with Chiron's disillusionment. Transiting Uranus is in T-square. Also, transiting Chiron has been hovering near conjunction with natal Venus. Transiting Mercury (now retro), Venus, and Jupiter are all in late Virgo in opposition. Transiting Saturn will square natal Jupiter this November, then conjunct natal Pluto the end of December. Facebook's natal Jupiter square Pluto is interesting...analytic opportunity and expansion vs the collective, in philosophical Sagittarius. Facebook is an analytic's corporation first-and-foremost in the guise of something beneficial for the masses. I bet there will some major issues with Facebook the end of this year.

mike (again) said...

Twilight, just saw your 11:36 comment. We had the "Pledge of Allegiance" and perhaps a patriotic song. The principal spoke through loudspeakers every morning, just after the pledges. About once a week, we practiced the nuclear disaster and tornado drills, either under our desk or out to the hallway. Very regimented! Those were the McCarthy era days. Indoctrination was of utmost importance...LOL. Sounds as if your part of the globe wasn't much different. It's sad that children are so plastic and adults feel the need to mold uniformity. Not much room for individualized children, though some free-thinkers make it through the process, usually with a few scars.

R J Adams said...

I think both Mike Michaud and (dare I say it!) the writer (sorry, Twilight!) have somewhat missed the point of Rosenblum's snippet, though without consulting his full piece it's difficult to judge. It seems to me that he's not damning the progams so much as the channels that are carrying them. The 'Learning Channel' should be educational; the 'History Channel' should teach history, and the 'Discovery Channel' should be about discovering the facts of the Universe where we live. They used to be that way and were primarily aimed at teaching young people in a way that was fun. Now, there are programs on these channels most sane parents wouldn't want their kids to watch. (I'm not sure where Rosenblum was going with CBS. I don't remember that channel ever screening anything worthwhile. Maybe I'm just not old enough. ;-)

Twilight said...

RJ Adams ~ Well...be that as it may RJ, the feelings of M. Michaud (I assume), and my own (I know) stemmed from more than that single piece of writing. The smug quasi-snobbery and feelings of superiority of some so-called liberals gets up my nose, and has from the moment I began taking notice of US politics. Mr Rosenblum's piece was an opportunity to let loose a bit, I guess. :-)

I just wish that a certain cadre of liberals were a tad more thoughtful, respectful of those who think differently, and - importantly - their reasons for thinking differently.