Sunday, September 08, 2013

"....every 100 years"

Last paragraph of a piece titled Kaiser Obama by Elliot Sperber at Counterpunch this weekend

To be sure, as Obama argues his case for bombing Syria it is interesting to reflect upon the fact that at least since the death of Louis XIV, in 1715, there has been a major shake up in European western power every hundred years. In 1815, after the defeat of Napoleon, the alliance largely established at the Congress of Vienna maintained a balance of power that persisted until an industrializing, unified Germany upset it, leading to World War I in 1914, after which a new Order arose. And now, in 2013, over 20 years since the end of the Cold War, one cannot help but wonder whether an overextended, historically unpopular US will precipitate its own demise, joining Napoleon’s Empire, and the Austro Hungarian Empire, and so many others in the clutter of the dustbin of history.

100 years? None of the major outer planets' orbits (or related oppositions etc) is near enough to 100 years to reflect any "shake-up effect" in a 100-year cycle. (Uranus= 84 years, Neptune 165 = years, Pluto 248= years). Out of curiosity I looked up length of Eris's orbit (557 years), then Chiron (about 50 years) which led to Pholus (92 years).

Two orbits of Chiron = 100 years, that's not a good fit though. Alternatively, 1 orbit of Pholus comes nearest to 100 years. I know nothing of Pholus. Let's see.....From HERE at re Pholus
According to first astrological observations, Pholus gives unusual ability in a particular area, or unexpected results, due to a gift for experiment. Pholus' transits over the main axes of a chart, often mark radical and unexpected change, hinted at by his sudden and unexpected death in the myth.
Coincidence? Maybe. Just a thought.


♥ Sonny ♥ said...

I truly hope we dont get involved with this.. Its their country and their war and we have no business there.

Jefferson's Guardian said...

The "one-hundred year" cycle isn't a coincidence. According to The Fourth Turning (by William Strauss and Neil Howe), these "turnings" come in cycles of four. Each cycle spans the length of a long human life, roughly eighty to one-hundred years, a unit of time the ancients called the saeculum. Together, the "four turnings" of the saeculum comprise history's seasonal social rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and destruction -- not unlike our earthly seasonal patterns of spring, summer, fall and winter. Obviously, we're currently in our "winter".

Strauss and Howe, both generational sociologists, term our American cycles the High, the Awakening, the Unraveling, and the Crisis. Although published during our last "Unraveling" (1997), their predictions are uncannily accurate.

I heard about this book a couple of years ago and ordered it from Amazon. After reading it, I then ordered several more copies and gave them to friends and family. I believe it to be one of the five most important books I've read in my lifetime. I highly recommend that you, and your readers, read it also. I believe everyone will find it useful in understanding where we are and how we got to this point.

Oh, and of course, its totally nonpartisan and without religious overtones. If I recall, this publication took over twelve years to research. There's enough supporting documentation to choke a horse. it.

mike said...

Sperber starts his 100 years with the German influence of 1914. Germany was defeated with the conclusion of WWII in 1945. Sperber doesn't account for that European shake-up of power. So, I'm not so sure I'd be looking for his 100 year cycle. The Berlin Wall came down in 1990, surely another shake-up in power.

The Jupiter-Saturn 20 year cycle does tend to fit the trend of major dates of important changes. The last being May, 2000.

If a 100 year cycle is desired, the Neptune-Pluto conjunction cycle of 500 years has a septile aspect pattern of 100 years.

Here's an article for Neptune-Pluto, but gets into a lot of other cycles and Pluto's occasional closer-to-Earth-than-Neptune influence:

Twilight said...

Sonny ~ I hope not too. According to polls things are looking hopeful for a "No" vote in the House, but we'd best not count chickens.

Twilight said...

Jefferson's Guardian ~ Hey! Nice to see you! I'd lost track of you somehow - thought about you just the other day, think I saw your name on some comment thread or other. I've added your blog to my links now. I think you've changed its title?
My memory is hazy many blogs so little time and all that. :-)

Thanks for the book recommendation, it sounds fascinating and something I'd love to read, or at least dip into, so have found a used copy on e-bay and ordered it.

Twilight said...

mike ~ I know - that question struck me also. I suppose that what Mr Sperber could have meant to imply was not that these are the only points where regime changes in European countries took place, but that at the roughly 100 year point a change did take place - since 1715 anyway. That's one possibility anyway.

Different cycles, different aspects to them, different's a jungle up there alright!

Thanks, Nep/Plu cycle sounds a likely culprit - will go read the link.

LB said...

Twilight ~ If you haven't already, you might also want to check out historian Ronald Wright's 2004 short book, "A Short History of Progress" in which he talks about historical cycles of progress leading to eventual (and sometimes catastrophic) collapse. It's called a "progress trap".

According to Wikipedia: "A progress trap is the condition human societies experience when, in pursuing progress through human ingenuity, they inadvertently introduce problems they do not have the resources or political will to solve, for fear of short-term losses in status, stability or quality of life. This prevents further progress and sometimes leads to collapse."

Sadly, this description seems very fitting right now.:(

Or, in the words of Martin Luther King, Jr., "Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power. We have guided missiles and misguided men."

This is the second time in a week I've used this quote, though it's worth repeating. Martin Luther King was a man ahead of his time.

Twilight said...

LB ~ That book sounds interesting too - a kind of prequel to what we face nowadays. Will put it on my list, thanks for the recommendation.

MLK always had the right words!

Another favourite quote, along similar lines came from John Steinbeck:

Man is the only kind of varmint who sets his own trap, baits it, then steps on it.

LB said...

Twilight ~ Forgot to say how your thoughts on Pholus are interesting - did you happen to notice how in the President's natal chart he has a close opposition of his 6th house Sun to 12th house Pholus?

Pholus is conjunct my Moon by less than a degree, so I've always been curious. I relate most to its having to do with processes that once started, cannot be stopped, often relating to generational patterns or influences and our possible over-reaction. Here's a link to something I found:

Twilight said...

LB ~~ No I didn't see that re the President's chart. I wonder what it might signify?

I don't include Pholus when I use my own software, so I went over to just now to quickly see where Pholus is in my own natal chart. It's 6 degrees from Mercury, in Capricorn and conjunct descendant angle (although my birthtime could be out by 30 mins or so, so not too definite on the angle degree.)

That's a good article you've linked -thanks!

I like this sentence in the Pholus paragraph:

The jar of Pholus was not supposed to be opened for four generations, and so the astrological Pholus often highlights the releasing of ancestral processes, whether these are known or unknown to us. In some way, bearing witness to the past can be important as we are called upon to clarify our own ancestral lineage.

That rings bells for me as I've been delving into and other genealogical websites regularly for weeks now, trying to knock down brick wealls and fill in gaps in my family tree.

Twilight said...

I meant....brick walls ;-)

LB said...

Twilight ~ Brick walls . . . been there, done that. Wish I'd asked my grandparents more questions when they were still alive. I began doing my own genealogy research right around the time transiting Pholus entered my 4th house. You might want to try typing in whichever surname you're researching followed by the word GenForum. Just using the free online forum (and with the help of other researchers), I was able to trace some of my ancestors going as far back as the 1600-1700's.

Totally unrelated to my genealogy research, when transiting Pholus was conjunct my 4th house Saturn (which sits at the exact midpoint of my chart's closest Moon-Pholus/Mercury-Neptune-Jupiter square), I found a sibling given up for adoption before I was born. Finally discovering my mother's secret was a lot like opening up Pandora's box, only in some respects, more healing.:)

ex-Chomp said...

For sure it is ending American domination in the world, but the point is not if, but how, the way it will end.

Will it end putting on charge Iranian fanaticism and Middle Eastern Islamism?

That is the point.

Consider that Churchill was well aware that fighting Germany would have meant the end of The Empire for England.

So things are very very different from what we usally see now.

Generally speaking today people love to think they would have not backed Hitler...

Personally I am not that sure...

No one loves to be involved in crises, especially in the Midle East, where the religious factor makes people become blind fanatics. But the problem Obama has is that he tried all along his second Presidency to take the distance from Middle East. His weak point is that he cannot wipe out what Mr. George Bush II did...

So he faces bad choicesd ahead.
And astrologically speaking he wasted his main opportunities, he risks to make a weak and unuseful intervention, if and only if the Congress would allow him to do it, that remembers me very much what happened to the president Jimmy Carter who wasted his presidency making a stupid act in the Middle East.

On the other side, he gave his word and risks his face in this problem.

ex-Chomp said...

He risks to be a lame duck

Twilight said...

LB ~ I'll give that a try - many thanks!

My problems stem from 1. births out of wedlock and 2. too many sets of siblings, with same first names same surnames. So once beyond English censuses - earlier than 1841 - it gets progressively more difficult to be sure I'm on the right track, unless others have been down it before me and cleared the way by more intense on site research in England.

Like you - I wish I'd started in earnest earlier, when I was over there.

You made quite a discovery - that must have been so gratifying!

Twilight said...

ex-Chomp ~ He risks losing face, that's for sure - but for me he lost face long ago. Today should be interesting. :-)

Twilight said...

ex-Chomp ~ I missed your longer comment earlier this morning.

Your point: "Consider that Churchill was well aware that fighting Germany would have meant the end of The Empire for England...."

Not fighting would have meant the end of England - full stop! Maybe that's your point?

I probably am not understanding, if so I'm sorry.....

That was an entirely different situation from what we have re Syria. Germany was on Britain's doorstep, their military might could easily have brought us down. There really was little option for Churchill but to fight, in a combination of self-defence and allying Britain with other enemies of Hitler's regime.

That was big-time stuff. I suppose the Syria issue could, in time, expand widely enough to pose actual serious threat to the USA - but only if the USA gets involved now. If they don't - the internal struggles there and elsewhere in the ME will go on - they've been going on for centuries already. Nobody, but they themselves, can change that for the future.

Jefferson's Guardian said...

Twilight, good morning! I basically stopped posting for the last year because it started to become too much of a chore, although I anticipate resuming again in the not-too-distant future.

I'm glad you ordered the book. It allowed me to see everything in perspective -- along with giving understanding to our current condition. It showed me that when time is thought of seasonally, in terms of "turnings", vast spans of time become more comprehensible and meaningful.

It also validated what I felt -- that being in "winter", the worst is yet to come. But, it depends how we, meaning each generation, react to the circumstances that develop in the next few years, and how we come through it to "spring" again.

I certainly take solace in knowing that I chose to be here at this time. For what purpose, I'm not entirely sure yet. But I'm confident, with time, this will become apparent to me.

Enjoy the book!

Twilight said...

Jefferson's Guardian ~ Mornin'! Ah, well, I shall now keep an eye on your blog to watch for a welcome return to life then!

I'm looking forward to reading the book, shipped yesterday from Goodwill. It might have a few pencil notes in the margins - I don't mind those, in fact I find them interesting. :-)