From any news-reading I've done lately, I note that the Brexit scenario hasn't improved any. My jaw can't drop any lower than the floor, but it is certainly grinding the carpet to dust! Here are some good well-upvoted observations from Richard Lock, who Has Somehow Ended Up Working as a Patent Attorney. It comes from his Quora answer to the question:
This answer has already been "shared"; I'm taking it that a further sharing here would raise no objection - so a big thank you, to Mr Lock!
Spilling a bucket of cowshit on the hallway floor may be considered an accident.
Tap-dancing in the resultant mess so that it sprays high and wide up the walls and ceiling, running through the house flinging handfuls of it around the living room, and then finger-painting the kitchen and bedrooms…cannot.
The referendum was held in June 2016. It is now nearly March 2019.
Consider the following. These are all Theresa May’s actions. Hers, and hers alone. Roughly chronological:
~ Appointed David Davis as Brexit Secretary (13th July 2016). Kept him in that position even when it was clear that he was doing nothing and achieving nothing. He resigned - not fired, resigned - in July 2018.
~ Triggered Article 50 (March 29th 2017). There was (and is) no ‘roadmap’ to leaving at the time she (and she alone) did this. Triggering Article 50 sets a two-year fixed time period for arranging an orderly withdrawal.
~ Called an unnecessary election (June 2017) partway through the two-year Article 50 process, diverting time and effort from all parties into the campaign. Manages to lose 13 Conservative seats and cannot form a Government.
~ Decides to solve this problem by allying with the 10 MPs of the DUP, a Northern Irish party who believe the earth was created 6,000 years ago, and who are known for being somewhat…inflammatory, not to mention stubborn, in their viewpoints. Gets them onboard by somehow finding 1.5 billion pounds going spare in the public finances. At a time when the country is undergoing huge and sustained cuts in public spending.
~ Sets up a bunch of ‘red lines’ in her negotiating position with the EU. The result of these is to exclude certain solutions such as continued membership of the Single Market and Customs Union (e.g. the ‘Norway’ option and various other forms of ‘soft’ Brexit), and to put any possible solution that would fit within the red lines in conflict with the Good Friday Agreement, an international and legally-binding treaty which the UK is signatory to.
Refuses to modify the red lines to accommodate this (for example by keeping Northern Ireland in the Single Market), almost certainly because she has to rely on the DUP to stay in power.
~ Finalises an agreement with the EU (25th Nov 2018). This needs to pass the UK parliament. The vote is scheduled for 11th Dec 2018.
~ Is defeated in three preliminary votes on 4th Dec, including being held in Contempt of Parliament.
~ Announces on 10th Dec 2018 that the vote scheduled for 11th Dec is postponed. Admits that it’s because she would lose the vote. This is rescheduled for 15th January 2019.
~ Vote is put to Parliament on 15th Jan 2019. May loses by the largest margin ever (230 votes). She very narrowly survives a confidence vote held directly after this.
~ Another vote is scheduled for 14th Feb. She loses this one as well.
~ Another vote is, or rather was, scheduled for 27th Feb. This one was supposed to be the next ‘big’ vote - following the delayed and rescheduled Dec/Jan votes, the theory was that further changes would be negotiated with the EU, and UK MPs could then re-vote. This has not happened, as the EU has made it very clear that further changes cannot and will not happen. The vote is currently re-scheduled for 12th March. It is highly likely that this will be more-or-less the same deal that Parliament already voted down by 230 votes.
In short, ‘so many people blame Theresa May’, because she has made a bad situation almost infinitely worse, as a direct result of her own actions or inactions.
Edited to make an addition. This is from ‘Times’ correspondent Matthew Parris in his column over the weekend of 23rd/24th Feb 2019:
Tap-dancing in the resultant mess so that it sprays high and wide up the walls and ceiling, running through the house flinging handfuls of it around the living room, and then finger-painting the kitchen and bedrooms…cannot.
The referendum was held in June 2016. It is now nearly March 2019.
Consider the following. These are all Theresa May’s actions. Hers, and hers alone. Roughly chronological:
~ Appointed David Davis as Brexit Secretary (13th July 2016). Kept him in that position even when it was clear that he was doing nothing and achieving nothing. He resigned - not fired, resigned - in July 2018.
~ Triggered Article 50 (March 29th 2017). There was (and is) no ‘roadmap’ to leaving at the time she (and she alone) did this. Triggering Article 50 sets a two-year fixed time period for arranging an orderly withdrawal.
~ Called an unnecessary election (June 2017) partway through the two-year Article 50 process, diverting time and effort from all parties into the campaign. Manages to lose 13 Conservative seats and cannot form a Government.
~ Decides to solve this problem by allying with the 10 MPs of the DUP, a Northern Irish party who believe the earth was created 6,000 years ago, and who are known for being somewhat…inflammatory, not to mention stubborn, in their viewpoints. Gets them onboard by somehow finding 1.5 billion pounds going spare in the public finances. At a time when the country is undergoing huge and sustained cuts in public spending.
~ Sets up a bunch of ‘red lines’ in her negotiating position with the EU. The result of these is to exclude certain solutions such as continued membership of the Single Market and Customs Union (e.g. the ‘Norway’ option and various other forms of ‘soft’ Brexit), and to put any possible solution that would fit within the red lines in conflict with the Good Friday Agreement, an international and legally-binding treaty which the UK is signatory to.
Refuses to modify the red lines to accommodate this (for example by keeping Northern Ireland in the Single Market), almost certainly because she has to rely on the DUP to stay in power.
~ Finalises an agreement with the EU (25th Nov 2018). This needs to pass the UK parliament. The vote is scheduled for 11th Dec 2018.
~ Is defeated in three preliminary votes on 4th Dec, including being held in Contempt of Parliament.
~ Announces on 10th Dec 2018 that the vote scheduled for 11th Dec is postponed. Admits that it’s because she would lose the vote. This is rescheduled for 15th January 2019.
~ Vote is put to Parliament on 15th Jan 2019. May loses by the largest margin ever (230 votes). She very narrowly survives a confidence vote held directly after this.
~ Another vote is scheduled for 14th Feb. She loses this one as well.
~ Another vote is, or rather was, scheduled for 27th Feb. This one was supposed to be the next ‘big’ vote - following the delayed and rescheduled Dec/Jan votes, the theory was that further changes would be negotiated with the EU, and UK MPs could then re-vote. This has not happened, as the EU has made it very clear that further changes cannot and will not happen. The vote is currently re-scheduled for 12th March. It is highly likely that this will be more-or-less the same deal that Parliament already voted down by 230 votes.
In short, ‘so many people blame Theresa May’, because she has made a bad situation almost infinitely worse, as a direct result of her own actions or inactions.
Edited to make an addition. This is from ‘Times’ correspondent Matthew Parris in his column over the weekend of 23rd/24th Feb 2019:
Time and again I’ve protested that she may not be the answer but she didn’t create this mess. She’s just a dogged politician, overly cautious and rather shy, but time and again my informants, MPs, former MPs, civil servants, special advisers, tell me eyes flashing that I’ve got it wrong, and the public have got it wrong and she’s so much worse than that.
She’s not normal, she’s extraordinarily uncommunicative, extraordinarily rude in the way she blanks people, ideas and arguments and to my surprise there’s no difference between the pictures of her that Remainers and Leavers paint. Theresa May they tell me (in a couple of cases actually shouting) is the Death Star of modern politics, she’s the theory of anti-matter made flesh. She’s the political black hole because nothing, not even light, can escape: ideas, beliefs, suggestions, objections, inquiries, proposals, protests, loyalties, affections, trust; while careers, real men and women are sucked into the awful void that is Downing Street, and nothing ever comes out, no answers only a blank so blank that it screams.
Reputations, they lament, are staked on her and lost, warnings are delivered to her and ignored, plans are run by her unacknowledged, messages are sent and unanswered, she has become the unperson of Downing Street, the living embodiment of the closed door.
It's an absolute disaster, and yes she is the fall guy now. That referendum should never have happened and the UK is suffering catastrophic withdrawals of industry and services from their economic base. I read many analyses of the situation even down to the Irish take on 800 years of British rule, now pulling up their screens to watch the almighty fall.
ReplyDeleteIt's not pretty and even anointing May as the scapegoat isn't helping the situation. It goes much, much deeper. Like 45. It's not him, it's the years of empire building behind him.
And I always ask the question: who's going to pay here?
XO
WWW
Wisewebwoman ~ I suppose, WWW, that it's another case of that old quote (of a US president) "the buck stops here" (in this case 'there').
ReplyDeleteAs you ask, though, "who will pay?" even if "the buck stopped" at PM May. Same ol' same ol' answer: the people of will pay - those not already cushioned by wealth and power!
I've been skimming around astrologers' thoughts on Ms May's natal chart. She has a tightly clustered chart, based around the Libra, Virgo area with just Mars "out on a limb" in Pisces opposing natal Jupiter in Virgo. One astrologer, Archie Dunlap has what I think is a good straightforward assessment of the lady's personality.
https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/May,_Theresa
He has this to say about Jupiter/Mars opposition
http://www.archiedunlop.com/2019/01/16/theresa-may-astrology-misreading-things/
......Matter’s aren’t helped by the fact that her Jupiter in Virgo is in opposition aspect with Mars in Pisces. Astrologer Charles Carter described the Mars-Jupiter opposition as the worst in the book. May’s Mars and Jupiter are in mutable signs, and this opposition seems almost a separate aspect of her personality, that’s poorly integrated with the whole. A sensible woman, who sometimes takes surprising initiatives, that are not grounded in reality...........
Misuse of social media plays an unimaginable role in world affairs right now, as it's so easily manipulated to manipulate! We;ve been led to believe it's the 'fake' MSM, but can't fault most of them for reporting the obvious surface details which is their job. Brexit and Trump are products delivered and maintained by troll factories working out of platforms like FaceBook, youtube, Instagram to give your political emotions a workout.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous ~ I do agree with you - up to a poin - and have written much the same things myself at times. Still, though, there IS a basic level of incompetence at play in both the handling of Brexit and the way Trump is handling the US presidency - whatever social media has to say. Yes, they embroider, and emphasise only factors that support the writers' own views - and do so continually, ad nauseam. As for troll factories - yes, I guess these exist. I'm not on Facebook, YouTube (other than listening to music), or Instagram so cannot add anything useful on that front.
ReplyDeleteReceived from "JD" in the UK, by e-mail:
ReplyDeleteDon't worry about Brexit because nobody has a clue as to what happens next, especially our headless chickens in Parliament :)
And the European 'leaders' are living in their own little fantasy, oblivious to the chaos that is the Greek and Italian economies, oblivious to the 15 consecutive weekends of the 'yellow vests' rioting in France against Macron.
Any and every vote against EU policy is ignored if it doesn't produce the 'right' result. Not just Brexit but the Irish were made to vote three times until they got it right, the Danes were made to vote again, the Greeks voted against austerity so the EU appointed their preferred prime minister (does that remind you of a South American country in the news recently?), the Italians were told their new budget was not acceptable and that is currently unresolved.
I am beginning to lose track...... but these might help you understand what is going on:
If you want Brexit explained with clarity list to Mark Blyth, professor of Political Economy at Brown University -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwK0jeJ8wxg
When you have digested that :) you can take a look at what Dr Oliver Hartwich has to say - the Euro is organized madness!
Then read the thoughts of Martin Armstrong further down the page and I have added my own blog comment just to add to the fun.
http://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.com/2019/02/supercrash-euro-is-organized-madness.html
The reality is that the Euro will destroy the European Union; elsewhere Mark Blyth explains that if you think your new Mercedes is a German car it is not. It is built in Romania because Romania is not part of the Eurozone and so labour costs are less than in Germany. (Sorry I can't find that particular video at the moment.)
In the UK we should be forever grateful that Gordon Brown and Ed Balls kept us out of the Euro.
So don't worry too much, nobody has a clue. And remember the words of Terence McKenna "Worrying is praying to the devil. Worrying is betting against yourself!"
JD ~ many thanks for these links and observations. :) Rather than worrying, I'm simply confused, more and more so each day! I do worry a little - about my 2 UK pensions reducing to a shadow of their former selves (they were never that opulent anyway). It's odd that the pound has rallied a little in the past few days - as though "somebody knows something". :)
ReplyDeleteI hadn't included the Euro issue in my confusion until now - another layer to mystify me! I do agree, though, that it was a very good thing that the UK didn't get into that piece of potential trouble - small mercies!
It's my belief that the euro will survive, though the EU's greatest blunder (in my opinion) was accepting the Eastern European nations as members when they were still ill equipped economically after the demise of the USSR. Yes, there's problems in Europe, but it's only mirroring what's happened in the States. Populism is rampant because governments aren't governing for the people anymore. Corporate power is in control. As for the Gilets Jaunes, yes it's been a concerted series of protests, but almost all the violence has been inflicted by political extremists infiltrating the mainly peaceful protesters. It's not generally known, but for years now there have been protests in Paris virtually every weekend over some problem or other. The French believe in protests - they don't forget the Revolution!.
ReplyDeleteAs for Brexit, the initial blame lies with David Cameron for caving to his Tory right-wingers in the first place. It's a fact that the hard right have been trying to tear the country away from Europe for forty years. Through skulduggery and downright lies they're on the verge of succeeding. May was probably the worst person to be handling the matter. Everything Richard Locke said about her is true. Personally, I doubt she's going to last too much longer.
As for Mercedes cars, the headquarters is in Stuttgart, Germany, but they have factories all over the world. To say they're all made in Romania just isn't true.
Personally, I believe Britain not embracing the euro was a very bad move. Had they done so it's likely there would never have been any possibility of Brexit.
Really great post pretty much bang on the money. Boy is it fun over here. We have one leader who is clever enough, and a mistress of detail, but lacks perception and absolutely will not listen to anyone at all and another who is a jew-hater, thick, utterly uneducated, lazy and has never done a stroke of work in his life and now finds he lacks any skills to run a bath far less a modern political party.
ReplyDeleteRJ Adams ~ I hadn't seen your comment until now, RJ - it must have slipped through during the time our internet service was having a dicky-fit. Only came across it because of David's comment today - below.
ReplyDeleteMany thanks for your observations - you have a "foot in both camps" UK/EU - kind of. I agree that David Cameron's decision was the source of the current debacle. I wonder how he's feeling about it now?
Re the euro - I'm not educated enough in finance/economics to form an opinion, but what you say makes sense - there'd have been a much stronger tie involved, with less of the feeling in Europe that Britain was continually being an awkward cuss, as a member of the EU.
David Macadam ~ Hi there! I can image what fun it is! Funny thing though, I receive letters or notes from a couple of friends (both around my own age) in England and, so far, they haven't even mentioned Brexit! I suppose they are simply fed up of it all - must be on TV non-stop over there. I'm surprised y'all haven't gone raving mad already!
ReplyDeleteI thought at first that May would be "a capable pair of hands" - but turns out that if she is, those hands would be better put to use managing an office or small company. Like D. Trump she's way, way out of her depth and liable to cause chaos.